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International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology
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Accuracy of the Static-99 in Predicting Recidivism in Switzerland

Jerome Endrass

Psychiatric/Psychological Service, Zurich, Switzerland, jerome.endrass{at}mac.com

Frank Urbaniok

Psychiatric/Psychological Service, Zurich, Switzerland

Leonhard Held

Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine, Zurich, Switzerland

Stefan Vetter

Center for Disaster and Military Psychiatry, Zurich, Switzerland

Astrid Rossegger

Psychiatric/Psychological Service, Zurich, Switzerland

The Static-99 is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument. Various international validation studies have found satisfactory to good predictive validity for the Static-99, with the area under the curve (AUC) between 59% and 95%. This study is the first evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the Static-99 among sex offenders in Switzerland. The Static-99 scores of 69 violent/sex offenders in Switzerland were assessed using data from their psychiatric assessments. Recidivism was operationalized as reconviction assessed from penal records. The Static-99 risk levels were predictive for recidivism (AUC = .758) among our population. The results are discussed on the basis of the literature.

Key Words: Static-99 • calibration • sex offender • validity • recidivism • Switzerland

This version was published on August 1, 2009

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, Vol. 53, No. 4, 482-490 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0306624X07312952
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