International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology

 

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This version was published on June 1, 2008
International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, Vol. 52, No. 3, 330-345 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/0306624X07305481
© 2008 SAGE Publications

Global Risk Factors and the Prediction of Recidivism Rates in a Sample of First-Time Misdemeanant Offenders

Stephen M. Gavazzi

The Ohio State University, Columbus, gavazzi.1{at}osu.edu

Courtney M. Yarcheck

The Ohio State University Center for Family Research, Columbus

Jason M. Sullivan

The Ohio State University Center for Family Research, Columbus

Sheri C. Jones

Franklin County Domestic Relation and Juvenile Court, Columbus, OH

Atika Khurana

The Ohio State University, Columbus

This article examines the prediction of recidivism using the Global Risk Assessment Device (GRAD), a reliable and valid measure of dynamic factors associated with family characteristics, peers, mental health, substance abuse, trauma exposure, educational concerns, accountability, and health risks. Using a sample of adult caregivers of first-time misdemeanant offenders, two factors—education and accountability—were significantly associated with recidivistic behavior, supporting the use of GRAD data in correctly identifying first-time offenders who have the greatest and the least likelihood for future offending behavior. Additional analyses utilizing parent reports on African American males indicate that the GRAD provides discrimination in the prediction of recidivism in a group typically seen as being high risk simply because of their gender and race. The assessment drives intervention approach of the GRAD is discussed in terms of using reports from adults to accurately place youth into appropriate levels of supervision and treatment.

Key Words: delinquency • juvenile justice • recidivism • dynamic factors • assessment


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