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Differences in the Predictive Validity of Actuarial Risk Assessments in Relation to Sex Offender Type

Argosy University, dlbartosh{at}earthlink.net

Tina Garby, M.A.

Argosy University, tmgarby{at}surfbest.net

Deborah Lewis, Ph.D.

Argosy University

Steve Gray, Ed. D.

This study seeks to expand on the previously reported validity of the Static-99, RRASOR, MnSOST-R, and SORAG in predicting sexual recidivism utilizing a regional sample of offenders. The predictive validity of each test was determined utilizing subgroups of the sample based on each offender's known offense history. The effectiveness of each instrument varied depending on offender type. The Static-99 and SORAG were both significantly predictive of sexual, violent, and any recidivism for extrafamilial child molesters, and all four tests were predictive of violent or any recidivism in this subgroup. For incest offenders, all four tests were at least moderately predictive of sexual recidivism, whereas the Static-99 and the SORAG were highly predictive of violent or any recidivism. None of the four tests established consistent predictive validity across recidivism categories in regard to rapists or hands-off offenders, however, the Static-99 and the SORAG were significant in terms of sexual recidivism.

Key Words: sex offender • recidivism • risk assessment

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, Vol. 47, No. 4, 422-438 (2003)
DOI: 10.1177/0306624X03253850


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