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Critique concerning Prediction in Probation and Parole: Some Alternative Suggestions

Department of Criminal Justice, The University of Alabama, 436 Farrah Hall, Box 6365, University, Alabama 35486, U.S.A.

The decision to grant or deny probation or parole is dependent upon making predictions of what activity and behavior can be affected by probation or parole. However, in research conducted on correctional decision-making, the evidence shows that decision-making diverges significantly from what one would expect to be true if there were any validity to preventive or correctional claims as guides to decision-making. In light of this finding, this article discusses the side effects of prediction in probation and parole including economic consequences, sentencing issues, ethical issues, moral and political issues, and legal issues. The article concludes with several recommendations to limit our belief and use of prediction in probation and parole.

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, Vol. 30, No. 2, 125-139 (1986)
DOI: 10.1177/0306624X8603000206


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